Photo: Reza Lahidji / ILPI

Nuclear waste uncertainty assessment


Aim of the project

ILPI has been asked by Andra, the French agency in charge of radioactive waste management, to conduct a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in the safety assessment of a new deep geological disposal facility for radioactive wastes, to be built in France. The safety assessment plays a critical role in the design and development of the facility. ILPI’s Economics & Policy Analysis team is closely collaborating with a wide range of experts and engineers from Andra to elicit models, measurements and assumptions on which the safety assessment relies, and to develop a tool for identifying, characterising, integrating and propagating the associated uncertainties. ILPI’s innovative methodological approach makes it possible to have a complete overview of the highly diverse and sometimes radical uncertainties of this complex project.

The assignment is indicative of ILPI’s expertise and experience in the modelling of uncertainty and risk to support policy- and decision-making at all levels.


  • French national radioactive waste management agency (Andra)

Deliverables & time frame


  • A report on the uncertainties of the long-term safety assessment of a geological nuclear waste disposal facility
  • A computer based causal network of the uncertainties geared towards analysis, simulation and propagation

 Time frame

  • October 2014 – October 2015
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ILPI has closed down. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons more information

ILPI has closed down. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons